Opinion: The Two-Headed Fight for Ukraine and Taiwan

The Two-Headed Fight for Ukraine and Taiwan:  These aren’t mere regional hot spots, as Russia and China work together to upend world order:

A crisis may be imminent in Ukraine as Vladimir Putin gathers troops on the Russian border for a possible invasion. American policymakers have also begun focusing on a potential conflict in Taiwan, one that is coming to a boil more slowly. But American statesmen ought to understand: These events can’t be viewed in isolation; they are connected and part of a larger political competition for Eurasia.

Although separated by geography, Ukraine and Taiwan occupy similar positions in the Russian and Chinese strategic experience and historical imagination. Capturing each is essential to all other strategic objectives. For Russia, taking Ukraine would secure its hold on the Black Sea and open other pressure points against vulnerable NATO members Romania and Bulgaria. For the Chinese Communist Party, seizing Taiwan would allow the country to break out of the First Island Chain and conduct offensive operations against Japan, the Philippines, and even U.S. territories in the Central Pacific.

Seven years of warfare have given the Ukrainian military valuable combat experience. Ukrainian society, even in the east, is increasingly hostile to Russia. . . a Ukrainian political collapse is unlikely.  And expect an insurgency against Russian occupation.

The question for the People’s Liberation Army is less whether it can take Taiwan, but whether it can succeed before a potential American and allied coalition can respond.  With China and Russia in strategic cooperation, this is a very dangerous situation. The Russian Pacific Fleet has enough submarines to bog down Japanese and U.S. units needed to defend Taiwan in shielding the Japanese home islands. That would make China’s mission much more likely to succeed.

Roughly concurrent offensive operations in two hemispheres would overstress American and allied resources. Taiwan must become capable of defending itself. But more broadly, the U.S. must begin thinking about its strategic challenges globally, not in regional segments. This is a contest for Eurasia—and thus for the world.

Mr. Cropsey is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and director of Hudson’s Center for American Seapower. He served as a naval officer and as a deputy undersecretary of the Navy.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-two-headed-fight-ukraine-and-taiwan-china-russia-putin-nato-biden-us-fronts-invasion-11641308211?mod=e2fb&fbclid=IwAR2lViWNO1rK5m0_kFg4WrMj5eczIPqr6c2hXdeCjnr1xLfV4daLMjwgUAw