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M5.3 Flare / CME's
03/08/2011 (March 8th, 2011) by Kevin VE3EN at 12:15 UTC
M5.3 Solar Flare - A strong solar flare took place around departing Sunspot 1165 at 10:44 UTC Tuesday and registered M5.3. Because of the position of this sunspot, any explosions at this point around this region may not be earth directed.
M1.5 Flare / No Sunspots Needed: An M1.5 Solar Flare took place at 03:58 UTC Tuesday and was centered around the spotless plage region located in the south eastern quadrant of the visible solar disk.
M-Class Flares and two CME's - Several M-Class flares took place on Monday around Sunspots 1164, 1165 and 1166. Two Coronal Mass Ejections (CME's) did take place however both do not appear to be fully earth directed. These expanding clouds could deliver a minor blow to earths geomagnetic field within the next 72 hours. The largest flare thus far was an M3.7 which took place at 20:12 UTC Monday.
Click this link to watch a Movie of the second CME
Solar Update - As reported above, several M-Class flares (7) took place during the day on Monday. Sunspot 1165 which is located in the southern hemisphere is in the process of rotating onto the western limb and will soon be out of direct earth view. Sunspot 1164 which is in the northern hemisphere will also rotate onto the western limb soon after 1165. The chances for strong solar flares will decrease somewhat once these regions are out of view, however there will remain the possibility for further flares around Sunspot 1166. Just to the east of 1166, Sunspot 1169 did show some minor growth during the day on Monday.
Solar Flux Update: Not to sound like a broken record, but the Solar Flux reading on Monday is 153 (No pun intended). This is yet again another high for Cycle 24. The last time the solar flux was as this level, was July of 2004. Please note that this flux reading is an estimate due to the Flare activity in progress The high-sensitivity channels on the measurement device were completely overloaded by the long duration flare and produced a SFI reading of 938.6 at 20:00z.
Sunspots (Tuesday)
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Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. Updated 2011 Mar 07 2200 UTC.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity. SDF Number 066 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2011.
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IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been high. Regions 1164 (N24W59), 1165 (S20W78), and 1166 (N11E12) produced M-class events during the past 24 hours, all of which contain a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. Region 1166 produced a M1/Sf observed at 07/1430Z with an associated Type II and Type IV radio sweep. Region 1164 produced a M3 at 07/2012Z with an associated Type II radio sweep and a Tenflare that was in progress at this report time. The SOHO/LASCO imagery observed a full halo CME (a further analysis is underway). Images from the C2 first observed the CME at 07/1448Z while the C3 imagery first observed the event at 07/1518Z. The Penticton 10.7 cm flux and the 90 day mean are estimated for today (07 March) due to flare enhanced readings.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate on day one (08 March) with M-class events expected. Solar activity for days two and three (09-10 March) are expected to be low with a chance for an M-class event as Regions 1165 and 1164 transit around the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (08-10 March).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
Class M 75/50/40
Class X 10/05/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
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